本文摘要：When Alibaba publishes its quarterly earnings in New York today, the Chinese ecommerce group will face the clamour from a crowd of increasingly sceptical investors.阿里巴巴(Alibaba)将于今日在纽约公布其季度盈利财报。预计，这家中国电子商务集团将面对一群日益对其所持猜测态度的投资者的公开发表批评。

When Alibaba publishes its quarterly earnings in New York today, the Chinese ecommerce group will face the clamour from a crowd of increasingly sceptical investors.阿里巴巴(Alibaba)将于今日在纽约公布其季度盈利财报。预计，这家中国电子商务集团将面对一群日益对其所持猜测态度的投资者的公开发表批评。

There is a palpable sense among analysts that Alibaba’s honeymoon — which saw the ecommerce group break records with last year’s $25bn New York listing — is over.在分析师中间，不存在一种难于察觉到的点子：阿里巴巴的蜜月期完结了。在此前的蜜月期中，这家电子商务集团曾于去年在纽约以250亿美元的上市规模刷新记录。

Since November, Alibaba’s share price has fallen from more than $119 to $79 earlier this week — the first time its shares have dipped below $80 since its record-breaking initial public offering in September.自去年11月以来，阿里巴巴的股价已从每股119美元跌到至本周早些时候的每股79美元。这是该集团去年9月创纪录的IPO以来股价首次暴跌80美元。

Analysts will be watching the earnings announcement for any evidence of sluggishness in revenue growth, which undershot expectations at Alibaba’s previous results statement in January. They will also be looking for clarity on government attempts to regulate ecommerce and how this will affect the company’s profits.分析师将紧密注目阿里巴巴的财报，找寻任何营收快速增长低迷的证据——今年1月阿里巴巴前一份财报中的该指标就没能超过预期。此外他们还将注目的是，阿里巴巴将如何回应政府部门对电子商务的监管、及其对阿里巴巴盈利的影响。

“There is a lot of concern about just how sustainable is the hype around Alibaba,” said Shaun Rein, head of China Market Research Group, the Shanghai-based consultancy. “The share price went out of control after the IPO but all the hedge funds we were talking to said: ‘We want to get in before anyone else does, and we want to get out before anyone else does.’ ”上海咨询公司中国市场研究集团(China Market Research Group)主管雷小山(Shaun Rein)回应：“许多人担忧的是，环绕阿里巴巴的宣传噱头不会持续多久。在IPO之后，阿里巴巴的股价早已失控。

然而，与我们对话的对冲基金都回应：‘我们期望在其他人入场前入场，还期望在其他人离场前离场。’”Alibaba will be hoping that Thursday’s earnings announcement receives a better reception than its previous one in January, which sent its stock down 10 per cent on weaker than expected revenues. But perhaps most of the damage was due to Alibaba’s dispute with the State Administration for Industry and Commerce, a Chinese regulator.从阿里巴巴的角度来说，他们不会期望投资者对周四财报的接受程度能低于1月份的前一份财报。

由于营收很弱于预期，今年1月的财报曾造成阿里巴巴股价暴跌10%。不过，或许造成阿里巴巴股价损失的仅次于原因，应当是该集团与中国监管机构国家工商行政管理总局(State Administration for Industry and Commerce)之间的争端。In January SAIC said it had found evidence of bribery, fake listings and counterfeit goods on Taobao, Alibaba’s most popular consumer marketplace.今年1月，国家工商局回应，该机构找到了淘宝(Taobao)网站行贿不道德、欺诈销售表格及冒充商品的证据。

淘宝是阿里巴巴旗下人气最低的购物市场平台。The attention from regulators spooked some investors, said Chi Tsang, internet analyst covering Alibaba for HSBC in Hong Kong.香港汇丰银行(HSBC)研究阿里巴巴问题的互联网分析师Chi Tsang回应，监管机构的注目令其部分投资者深感惧怕。“Some think the government may yet force Alibaba to drop all these merchants that are selling fake goods, and if so, what is that going to do to sales on Taobao?” he asked.他说道：“部分人指出，政府或许还并未被迫阿里巴巴下线那些销售伪劣商品的商家，如果他们这么做到，这不会对淘宝的销售产生什么影响？”Mark Natkin, director of Marbridge Consulting, the Beijing-based internet consultancy, said the SAIC row had “planted a coconut-sized seed of doubt in everyone’s mind” about Alibaba’s business model.Marbridge Consulting董事马克纳特金(Mark Natkins)回应，与工商总局的争端“在每个人心目中祸根了（针对阿里巴巴商业模式的）极大疑窦”。Marbridge Consulting是一家总部派驻北京的互联网咨询公司。

“The SAIC’s report didn’t tell anyone anything they didn’t already know,” he said. “The fact that there are a lot of fake products on Taobao has never really bothered anyone, but now that the government seems serious about regulation, people don’t know what cleaning that up will mean for Alibaba’s bottom line.”他说道：“工商总局的报告所说的，全部是大家都告诉的事实。淘宝网车站弥漫大量伪劣产品的事实未曾确实后遗症过任何人。然而，政府如今或许要坦率对待淘宝网的监管问题。

人们不过于确切的是，这一清扫工作不会对阿里巴巴的盈利产生什么影响。”The lower than expected revenues in January, added Mr Tsang, partly reflected a switch to mobile by many users — a platform that generates smaller revenues because merchants are unwilling to pay as much for mobile advertising.Chi Tsang补足说道，1月份阿里巴巴营收高于预期，部分体现出有许多用户改向了移动设备。

由于商家不愿为移动广告缴纳某种程度多的费用，移动平台带给的营收比较要较少一些。Mr Rein said another concern was that Alibaba was paying the price for its pre-IPO corporate shopping spree, and a hiring glut that raised staff headcount by nearly 50 per cent.雷小山回应，人们还担忧的问题是，阿里巴巴正在为IPO前的可怕并购不道德及其过度聘用不道德付出代价。在之前的过度聘用不道德中，阿里巴巴的员工人数快速增长了近50%。Jack Ma, Alibaba’s chairman and founder, recently responded to accusations of bloat by declaring a hiring freeze along with other austerity measures, such as not paying workers a traditional spring festival bonus.最近，为对此阿里巴巴过度收缩的众说纷纭，阿里巴巴创始人兼任董事长马云(Jack Ma)曾宣告将暂停聘用。

此外，他还发布了其他多项减支措施——比如暂停向员工派发传统的春节奖金。“They obviously pushed hard to get great numbers to have a super awesome IPO,” said Mr Rein. “But it’s hard to maintain that momentum. It might have been better to have slightly weaker IPO numbers, and then just kick butt in the coming quarters.”雷小山回应：“很显著，为了在IPO中大获得顺利，他们尽很大希望营造了极致的报表数据。然而，这种势头是很难保持的。

或许，让IPO的数据稍微不振一点，再行在随后几个季度里冲刺可能会更佳些。”Cao Lei, director of the China Ecommerce Research Center in Alibaba’s home city of Hangzhou, said the acquisition spree last year — in which the company made more than $6bn of new investments in the lead-up to its IPO — had been a failure. “The abundance of companies it acquired last year have not apparently contributed to its existing business,” said Mr Cao.中国电子商务研究中心(China Ecommerce Research Center)主任曹磊回应，去年阿里巴巴的可怕并购是个告终的措施。

他说道：“阿里巴巴去年并购的大量企业，或许未对其现有业务有何协助。”在去年的可怕并购中，阿里巴巴在IPO前的新投资项目规模多达了60亿美元。

至于中国电子商务研究中心，该机构的方位就在阿里巴巴总部所在的杭州市。“For the moment Alibaba does not have many tricks in the bag to impress the market,” he said.他说道：“目前，阿里巴巴没多少能让市场印象深刻印象的锦囊妙计了。”Alibaba, citing a pre-earnings quiet period, declined to comment.阿里巴巴方面拒绝接受公开发表涉及置评，回应目前正处于公布财报前的静默期。

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